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Monday, November 5, 2012

A Geopolitical Model Based on Modelski's Theory of Cycles

Stability is the first term that comes to mind when thinking of atomic number 63 in the 1800s. After the upthrow of the Napoleonic contends, the "Peace of Metternich" brokered in 1815 held until the outbreak of World War I in 1914. True, there were "small" wars: Britain and Russia in the Crimea in the 1850s and the Franco-Prussian War in the early 1870s. There were strains in the sociable fabric: the uprisings in 1848, the Paris Commune in 1871. Still, the habitual situation was a general peace caused by the proportion of power among some(prenominal) nation- areas and nation-empires: Britain, France, Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary.

It was a peace characterized by disceptation: jockeying for economic position, territorial sovereignty and imperialistic exploitation of colonial regions and Middle Eastern/Asian spheres-of-influence. To the extent that capitalism was appear as the dominant economic mode, on the shoulders of mercantilism and traditional feudalism, the international economy was based upon a competitive object lesson that Adam Smith would have recognized. The key to the 19th one C was that this was the first fully orbiculate world economy. The nation-state was the established semipolitical unit, and every industrialized nation-state thought in terms of global implications. Kaiser Wilhelm II was prepared to prick at war with France and Britain in order to gain the concession of East African colonies for Germany. Britain control the waves for two reasons: military power


Mearshimer, John J. "Why We Will Miss the Cold War." Atlantic Monthly, August 1990, 35-50.

About Russia: the general prognosis for the central state of the former Soviet coalescence is that it will take several decades to re-establish an inside structure sufficient of defining the type of nation-state it is - and capable of supporting a stable, unified economic system. Again apply a Weberian analysis, it boils down to a question of legitimacy. Although the Soviet Union was ostensibly anti-capitalist, it was really an extension of the Czarist empire - a permutation of "the form of capitalist imperialism that came to dominate in capital of Italy". Now that the Czarist/Soviet empire is dead, much of the Russian government's internal legitimacy is in doubt.
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Regional civil wars already eat at its borders and interior. Still, because of Russian nuclear capability and its strategic position in the heartland of the Eurasian continent, it will be to the vegetable marrow members' continued interests in the future to placate Russia - even musical composition making very little investment in that nation's internal structure.

European and Japanese support of the U.S., in fact, is already a fact. According statistics prepared by the stock market brokerage firm firm of Drexel Burnham Lambert, irrelevant investors (primarily British, Dutch and Japanese) owned a 9 percent interest in American stocks in 1990. Although Americans may feel anxious about such a large, and increasing, foreign presence in the U.S. economy, the message is clear: the industrialized nations of Europe and Asia want the United States economy to stay strong and on their level. The influence of transnational corporations obviously plays a significant, and positive, role in this scenario - a role that should not be unexpected. This development is a logical inference of Max Weber's theory of administration, which holds "that internal politics is intimately connected with external geopolitics (author's emphasis) ... Weberian political sociology p
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